Increasing prevalence of diabetes may halt the effect among tuberculosis control in high tuberculosis burden countries.
The diabetes epidemic could substantially affect tuberculosis epidemiology in high burden countries, according to a new study by researchers at National Taiwan University (NTU). While WHO aims to reduce incidence of TB by 90% and mortality by 95% by 2035, this study has explored the factors that may affect the global tuberculosis control strategy and been published online on March, 2015 in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.
Conducted by Dr. Hsien-Ho Lin and Chi-Tai Fang, associate professors of epidemiology and preventive medicine in the College of Public Health (CPH), NTU and their colleague, Dr. Sung-Ching Pan in National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH), the study explored whether increasing prevalence of diabetes would affect tuberculosis control in high burden countries. Mathematical modeling was used based on the available knowledge of global epidemiology of diabetes and tuberculosis in order to project the different effects on the future tuberculosis incidence and mortality within the 13 high burden countries through different setting of diabetes prevalence.
If the prevalence of diabetes continues to rise as it has been in the past decade in the 13 countries (base case scenario), by 2035, the cumulative reduction in tuberculosis incidence would be 8·8% (95% credible interval [CrI] 4·0–15·8) and mortality would be 34·0% (30·3–39·6). Compared with the base case scenario, stopping the rise of diabetes would avoid incident tuberculosis cases by 6·0 million (95% CrI 5·1–6·9) and tuberculosis deaths by 1·1 million (1·0–1·3) in 13 countries during 20 years. If interventions reduce diabetes incidence by 35% by 2025, 7·8 million (6·7–9·0) tuberculosis cases and 1·5 million (1·3–1·7) tuberculosis deaths could be averted by 2035.
“The diabetes epidemic could substantially affect tuberculosis epidemiology in high burden countries,” the authors write. “The communicable disease and non-communicable disease sectors need to move beyond conventional boundary and link with each other to form a joint response to diabetes and tuberculosis”
Cumulative reduction of tuberculosis incidence (A) and mortality (B) in 13 countries with high tuberculosis burden under different scenarios of diabetes prevalence, 2015–35.
Reference
Pan SC, Ku CC, Kao D, Ezzati M, Fang CT, Lin HH. Effect of diabetes on tuberculosis control in 13 countries with high tuberculosis: a modelling study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2015 May;3(5):323-30.
Reference
Sung-Ching Pan, Chu-Chang
Ku, Diana Kao, Majid Ezzati, Chi-
Tai Fang, Hsien-Ho Lin. Effect of diabetes on tuberculosis control in
13 countries with high tuberculosis:
a modelling study. Lancet Diabetes
Endocrinol. 2015 May;3(5):323-
30. DOI:10.1016/S2213-
8587(15)00042-X.
Associate Professor Hsien-Ho Lin
Institute of Epidemiology and
Preventive Medicine
hsienho@ntu.edu.tw
Associate Professor Chi-Tai Fang
Institute of Epidemiology and
Preventive Medicine
fangct@ntu.edu.tw
Pictures
Diabetes prevention could benefit global control of tuberculosis